Important dates:
(purple dashed lines) May 14: Stay-at-Home reversed; May 25: Memorial Day; July 4: Independence Day
(blue dashed lines) March 25: Stay-at-Home order; Aug 1: WI mask mandate
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 24 2020 | 1734 | 21415 | 50 | 6 | 475 | 674 |
| September 25 2020 | 1776 | 21730 | 48 | 6 | 490 | 678 |
| September 26 2020 | 1840 | 22050 | 51 | 6 | 504 | 669 |
| September 27 2020 | 1887 | 22343 | 55 | 6 | 489 | 655 |
| September 28 2020 | 1940 | 22384 | 56 | 6 | 464 | 681 |
| September 29 2020 | 1969 | 22457 | 57 | 6 | 442 | 683 |
| September 30 2020 | 2000 | 22608 | 57 | 6 | 414 | 664 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 2.6 | 5.6% | 23 | 0.2% | 30 | 0.26% |
| 10-19 | 6 | 6.7 | 15.9% | 66 | 0.49% | 135 | 0.99% |
| 20-29 | 6 | 12.9 | 34.5% | 143 | 0.68% | 268 | 1.28% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 6.7 | 15.7% | 65 | 0.48% | 81 | 0.6% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 3.1 | 6.5% | 27 | 0.26% | 43 | 0.41% |
| 50-59 | 6 | 5.0 | 10.9% | 45 | 0.36% | 52 | 0.41% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 3.6 | 6.8% | 28 | 0.24% | 35 | 0.3% |
| 70+ | 1 | 2.1 | 4.6% | 19 | 0.18% | 22 | 0.21% |
| All ages | 31 | 42.4 | 100% | 414 | 0.4% | 664 | 0.63% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 24 2020 | 498 | 14231 | 19 | 0 | 78 | 103 |
| September 25 2020 | 517 | 14248 | 19 | 0 | 94 | 114 |
| September 26 2020 | 522 | 14550 | 21 | 0 | 88 | 113 |
| September 27 2020 | 546 | 14662 | 23 | 0 | 99 | 128 |
| September 28 2020 | 555 | 14749 | 23 | 0 | 99 | 135 |
| September 29 2020 | 567 | 14825 | 23 | 0 | 101 | 144 |
| September 30 2020 | 585 | 14916 | 23 | 0 | 109 | 151 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 0.9 | 5.5% | 6 | 0.08% | 8 | 0.1% |
| 10-19 | 2 | 1.9 | 12.8% | 14 | 0.17% | 22 | 0.26% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 2.3 | 17.4% | 19 | 0.27% | 33 | 0.46% |
| 30-39 | 2 | 1.7 | 13.8% | 15 | 0.18% | 20 | 0.24% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 1.4 | 12.8% | 14 | 0.18% | 18 | 0.23% |
| 50-59 | 4 | 3.1 | 21.1% | 23 | 0.24% | 28 | 0.29% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 1.6 | 10.1% | 11 | 0.13% | 15 | 0.18% |
| 70+ | 1 | 0.7 | 5.5% | 6 | 0.08% | 6 | 0.08% |
| All ages | 18 | 13.7 | 100% | 109 | 0.17% | 151 | 0.23% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 24 2020 | 437 | 8691 | 21 | 4 | 39 | 43 |
| September 25 2020 | 444 | 8818 | 21 | 4 | 43 | 50 |
| September 26 2020 | 456 | 8947 | 21 | 4 | 53 | 61 |
| September 27 2020 | 466 | 8957 | 21 | 4 | 61 | 70 |
| September 28 2020 | 478 | 8960 | 21 | 5 | 71 | 80 |
| September 29 2020 | 482 | 8995 | 22 | 5 | 71 | 81 |
| September 30 2020 | 490 | 9086 | 23 | 6 | 70 | 87 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 24 2020 | 2838 | 24651 | 44 | 2 | 1039 | 1393 |
| September 25 2020 | 2946 | 24857 | 45 | 2 | 1057 | 1423 |
| September 26 2020 | 2990 | 24931 | 46 | 2 | 979 | 1365 |
| September 27 2020 | 3047 | 25107 | 46 | 2 | 926 | 1293 |
| September 28 2020 | 3055 | 25337 | 46 | 2 | 680 | 1256 |
| September 29 2020 | 3095 | 25426 | 47 | 2 | 620 | 1206 |
| September 30 2020 | 3130 | 25673 | 50 | 3 | 562 | 1119 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 0.7 | 1.1% | 6 | 0.05% | 7 | 0.06% |
| 10-19 | 8 | 12.6 | 28.1% | 158 | 0.95% | 356 | 2.15% |
| 20-29 | 9 | 18.6 | 39.9% | 224 | 1.05% | 513 | 2.41% |
| 30-39 | 4 | 4.7 | 9.1% | 51 | 0.38% | 64 | 0.47% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 2.4 | 4.8% | 27 | 0.2% | 46 | 0.34% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 3.7 | 6% | 34 | 0.24% | 44 | 0.31% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 3.4 | 5.2% | 29 | 0.2% | 41 | 0.29% |
| 70+ | 4 | 3.1 | 5.9% | 33 | 0.25% | 48 | 0.37% |
| All ages | 35 | 49.3 | 100% | 562 | 0.48% | 1119 | 0.95% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 24 2020 | 9203 | 192910 | 357 | 41 | 1357 | 2232 |
| September 25 2020 | 9345 | 194393 | 363 | 41 | 1449 | 2091 |
| September 26 2020 | 9488 | 195129 | 364 | 41 | 1504 | 2099 |
| September 27 2020 | 9607 | 195692 | 366 | 41 | 1365 | 1985 |
| September 28 2020 | 9763 | 196362 | 368 | 41 | 1308 | 1917 |
| September 29 2020 | 9857 | 197220 | 369 | 42 | 1222 | 1961 |
| September 30 2020 | 10129 | 198198 | 375 | 43 | 1314 | 2145 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 6 | 4.3 | 3% | 40 | 0.07% | 58 | 0.1% |
| 10-19 | 5 | 28.0 | 20.2% | 266 | 0.37% | 566 | 0.8% |
| 20-29 | 63 | 42.3 | 27.3% | 359 | 0.35% | 668 | 0.64% |
| 30-39 | 75 | 28.6 | 17.7% | 232 | 0.3% | 296 | 0.39% |
| 40-49 | 58 | 20.0 | 12.1% | 159 | 0.24% | 225 | 0.34% |
| 50-59 | 44 | 19.1 | 11.3% | 148 | 0.23% | 190 | 0.29% |
| 60-69 | 11 | 8.7 | 5.5% | 72 | 0.13% | 91 | 0.17% |
| 70+ | 10 | 4.6 | 2.9% | 38 | 0.08% | 51 | 0.1% |
| All ages | 272 | 155.6 | 100% | 1314 | 0.24% | 2145 | 0.39% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 24 2020 | 108324 | 1371070 | 6897 | 1265 | 18368 | 23443 |
| September 25 2020 | 110828 | 1383645 | 6962 | 1274 | 19524 | 24578 |
| September 26 2020 | 113645 | 1393412 | 7041 | 1281 | 20933 | 26042 |
| September 27 2020 | 115862 | 1399218 | 7095 | 1281 | 21116 | 26677 |
| September 28 2020 | 117588 | 1405377 | 7142 | 1283 | 20309 | 27632 |
| September 29 2020 | 119955 | 1413774 | 7209 | 1300 | 20393 | 28651 |
| September 30 2020 | 122274 | 1423247 | 7300 | 1327 | 21047 | 29562 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 83 | 80.1 | 3.4% | 712 | 0.11% | 952 | 0.15% |
| 10-19 | 245 | 293.9 | 13% | 2744 | 0.36% | 4479 | 0.59% |
| 20-29 | 413 | 498.3 | 22% | 4631 | 0.61% | 7075 | 0.93% |
| 30-39 | 365 | 351.3 | 14.9% | 3145 | 0.42% | 4157 | 0.55% |
| 40-49 | 340 | 315.4 | 13.2% | 2768 | 0.4% | 3687 | 0.53% |
| 50-59 | 401 | 373.9 | 15.5% | 3258 | 0.4% | 4248 | 0.52% |
| 60-69 | 259 | 243.6 | 10.3% | 2162 | 0.29% | 2821 | 0.37% |
| 70+ | 213 | 178.1 | 7.7% | 1627 | 0.25% | 2143 | 0.33% |
| All ages | 2319 | 2334.6 | 100% | 21047 | 0.36% | 29562 | 0.51% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63.5 | 99.2 | 128.1 | 42.4 | 50.9 | 18.5% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23.4 | 13.7 | 8.1 | 10.4% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.2 | 9.3 | 2.3 | 11.1% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 94.6 | 215.1 | 241.1 | 49.3 | 121.4 | 21.5% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39.2 | 79.6 | 64.3 | 155.6 | 178 | 14.5% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50.8 | 59.2 | 93.5 | 2334.6 | 1708.4 | 20.6% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 21.5 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.36 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-10-21 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1464"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges